LOS D requires us to:
describe types of real options relevant to capital investment.
What are real options?
Real options refer to projects involving tangible assets versus financial instruments. Real options can include the decision to expand, defer or wait, or abandon a project entirely. A real option gives a firm’s management the right, but not the obligation to undertake certain business opportunities or investments.
What are the types of Real Options?
There are four types of real options:
Timing Options
a. Investments in any project may not be a one-time affair, it may be divided into multiple periods of time over the course of the project. This is also called project sequencing. The timing option gives the investor an option to alter the timing of investment.
b. There may be better information available to the investors after some time has passed since the beginning of the project. Basing the decision regarding the further investment after taking into account the available (updated) information adds to the value of the investment.
c. The investor may delay or prepone the investment based on the updated information.
d. This also helps in improving the NPV of the project.
Sizing Options
a. As discussed above, the investments in a project may be spread across the course of the project, and may not be just a one-time affair. The sizing options give the investors an option to change the size of the investment from the initially scheduled one, after taking into account the information available to them after a certain time has passed in the project.
b. The expansion projects allow the investors to make more investment than initially scheduled if the financial results of the project are strong and promising.
c. The abandonment projects, on the other hand, allow investors to abandon the project completely after the initial investments if the company’s financial results are disappointing.
d. The investors may also increase or decrease the size of investments according to the new and updated information available to them during the course of the project.
e. The availability of these options also increases the value of the project and the company.
Flexibility Options
a. There are various flexibility options such as price-setting options and production flexibility options.
b. The price-setting options allow the managers to change the price of the products and services as per the conditions and situation even after the initial planning.
c. The production flexibility options allow to increase or decrease the levels of production during the course of the project.
d. These options provide flexibility to the project, thus increasing their value.
Production Options
a. Here, the whole investment is considered as an option. The payoffs from the investments are contingent on an underlying asset, just like most financial options.
b. The investors have an option to increase the production and thus increasing the returns when required. Also, they have the option to control the production if, say, they want to control the supply and market prices.
c. You can consider the diamond mining industry as an example. When the cartels want to control the supply, they reduce production. And when they want to cash in, they increase the production. These decisions are made to maximize the investor’s wealth.
What are the approaches to real options analysis?
a. Without considering the options, using the discounted cash flow (DCF) approach, calculate the NPV of the project. If the NPV of the project is positive then accept the project. This is because options only add positive value to the project. And if the project has a positive value even without considering the real options, then options would only increase to the value further.
b. In order to calculate the real value of the project after considering the impact of real options, reduce the cost of options from the above NPV and add the value of the option.
Project NPV = NPV (based on DCF alone) – Cost of Options + Value of options
c. Make use of decision trees in analysis.
d. Use option pricing models such as the Black-Scholes model, binomial option pricing model, etc.