Course Content
THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY
This chapter is covered in reading 6 of study session 2 of the material provided by the institute. After reading this chapter, a student should be able to: a) interpret interest rates as required rates of return, discount rates, or opportunity costs; b) explain an interest rate as the sum of a real risk-free rate and premiums that compensate investors for bearing distinct types of risk; c) calculate and interpret the effective annual rate, given the stated annual interest rate and the frequency of compounding; d) solve time value of money problems for different frequencies of compounding; e) calculate and interpret the future value (FV) and present value (PV) of a single sum of money, an ordinary annuity, an annuity due, perpetuity (PV only), and a series of unequal cash flows; f) demonstrate the use of a timeline in modeling and solving time value of money problems.
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STATISTICAL CONCEPTS AND MARKET RETURNS
This chapter is covered in reading 7 of study session 2 of the material provided by the Institute. After reading this chapter, a student should be able to: a. distinguish between descriptive statistics and inferential statistics, between a population and a sample, and among the types of measurement scales; b. define a parameter, a sample statistic, and a frequency distribution; c. calculate and interpret relative frequencies and cumulative relative frequencies, given a frequency distribution; d. describe the properties of a data set presented as a histogram or a frequency polygon; e. calculate and interpret measures of central tendency, including the population mean, the sample mean, arithmetic mean, weighted average or mean, geometric mean, harmonic mean, median, and mode; f. calculate and interpret quartiles, quintiles, deciles, and percentiles; g. calculate and interpret 1) a range and a mean absolute deviation and 2) the variance and standard deviation of a population and of a sample; h. calculate and interpret the proportion of observations falling within a specified number of standard deviations of the mean using Chebyshev’s inequality; i. calculate and interpret the coefficient of variation and the Sharpe ratio; j. explain skewness and the meaning of a positively or negatively skewed return distribution; k. describe the relative locations of the mean, median, and mode for a unimodal, nonsymmetrical distribution; l. explain measures of sample skewness and kurtosis; m. compare the use of arithmetic and geometric means when analyzing investment returns.
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PROBABILITY CONCEPTS
This chapter is covered in reading 8 of study session 2 of the material provided by the Institute. After reading this chapter, a student should be able to: a. define a random variable, an outcome, an event, mutually exclusive events, and exhaustive events; b. state the two defining properties of probability and distinguish among empirical, subjective, and a priori probabilities; c. state the probability of an event in terms of odds for and against the event; d. distinguish between unconditional and conditional probabilities; e. explain the multiplication, addition, and total probability rules; f. calculate and interpret 1) the joint probability of two events, 2) the probability that at least one of two events will occur, given the probability of each and the joint probability of the two events, and 3) a joint probability of any number of independent events; g. distinguish between dependent and independent events; h. calculate and interpret an unconditional probability using the total probability rule; i. explain the use of conditional expectation in investment applications; j. explain the use of a tree diagram to represent an investment problem; k. calculate and interpret covariance and correlation; l. calculate and interpret the expected value, variance, and standard deviation of a random variable and of returns on a portfolio; m. calculate and interpret covariance given a joint probability function; n. calculate and interpret an updated probability using Bayes’ formula; o. identify the most appropriate method to solve a particular counting problem and solve counting problems using factorial, combination, and permutation concepts.
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COMMON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
This chapter is covered under reading 9, study session 3, as provided by the institute. After reading this chapter, a student shall be able to: a. define a probability distribution and distinguish between discrete and continuous random variables and their probability functions; b. describe the set of possible outcomes of a specified discrete random variable; c. interpret a cumulative distribution function; d. calculate and interpret probabilities for a random variable, given its cumulative distribution function; e. define a discrete uniform random variable, a Bernoulli random variable, and a binomial random variable; f. calculate and interpret probabilities given the discrete uniform and the binomial distribution functions; g. construct a binomial tree to describe stock price movement; h. calculate and interpret tracking error; i. define the continuous uniform distribution and calculate and interpret probabilities, given a continuous uniform distribution; j. explain the key properties of the normal distribution; k. distinguish between a univariate and a multivariate distribution and explain the role of correlation in the multivariate normal distribution; l. determine the probability that a normally distributed random variable lies inside a given interval; m. define the standard normal distribution, explain how to standardize a random variable, and calculate and interpret probabilities using the standard normal distribution; n. define shortfall risk, calculate the safety-first ratio, and select an optimal portfolio using Roy’s safety-first criterion; o. explain the relationship between normal and lognormal distributions and why the lognormal distribution is used to model asset prices; p. distinguish between discretely and continuously compounded rates of return and calculate and interpret a continuously compounded rate of return, given a specific holding period return; q. explain Monte Carlo simulation and describe its applications and limitations; r. compare Monte Carlo simulation and historical simulation.
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SAMPLING AND ESTIMATION
This chapter is covered under reading 10, study session 3, as provided by the institute. After reading this chapter, a student shall be able to: a. define simple random sampling and a sampling distribution; b. explain sampling error; c. distinguish between simple random and stratified random sampling; d. distinguish between time-series and cross-sectional data; e. explain the central limit theorem and its importance; f. calculate and interpret the standard error of the sample mean; g. identify and describe desirable properties of an estimator; h. distinguish between a point estimate and a confidence interval estimate of a population parameter; i. describe properties of Student’s t-distribution and calculate and interpret its degrees of freedom; j. calculate and interpret a confidence interval for a population mean, given a normal distribution with 1) a known population variance, 2) an unknown population variance, or 3) an unknown variance and a large sample size; k. describe the issues regarding selection of the appropriate sample size, data mining bias, sample selection bias, survivorship bias, look-ahead bias, and time-period bias.
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HYPOTHESIS TESTING
This chapter is covered under reading 11, study session 3, as provided by the institute. After reading this chapter, a student shall be able to: a. define a hypothesis, describe the steps of hypothesis testing, and describe and interpret the choice of the null and alternative hypotheses; b. distinguish between one-tailed and two-tailed tests of hypotheses; c. explain a test statistic, Type I and Type II errors, a significance level, and how significance levels are used in hypothesis testing; d. explain a decision rule, the power of a test, and the relation between confidence intervals and hypothesis tests; e. distinguish between a statistical result and an economically meaningful result; f. explain and interpret the p-value as it relates to hypothesis testing; g. identify the appropriate test statistic and interpret the results for a hypothesis test concerning the population mean of both large and small samples when the population is normally or approximately normally distributed and the variance is 1) known or 2) unknown; h. identify the appropriate test statistic and interpret the results for a hypothesis test concerning the equality of the population means of two at least approximately normally distributed populations, based on independent random samples with 1) equal or 2) unequal assumed variances; i. identify the appropriate test statistic and interpret the results for a hypothesis test concerning the mean difference of two normally distributed populations; j. identify the appropriate test statistic and interpret the results for a hypothesis test concerning 1) the variance of a normally distributed population, and 2) the equality of the variances of two normally distributed populations based on two independent random samples; k. formulate a test of the hypothesis that the population correlation coefficient equals zero and determine whether the hypothesis is rejected at a given level of significance; l. distinguish between parametric and nonparametric tests and describe situations in which the use of nonparametric tests may be appropriate.
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Quantitative Methods
About Lesson

LOS C, D, E, and F require us to:

c.  calculate and interpret the effective annual rate, given the stated annual interest rate and the frequency of compounding;
d.  solve time value of money problems for different frequencies of compounding;
e.  calculate and interpret the future value (FV) and present value (PV) of a single sum of money, an ordinary annuity, an annuity due, perpetuity (PV only), and a series of unequal cash flows;
f.  demonstrate the use of a time line in modeling and solving the time value of money problems.

 

 

In this section, we discuss the following:

a.  Present Value (PV) of an investment, or the initial investment;

b.  Future Value (FV) of an investment;

c.  N, i.e. the number of compounding periods or the time for which the investment is held; and

d.  The rate of interest (r), which is usually the discounting rate, or the expected return on investment.

Consider the following timeline:

Timeline Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

Now, if $ 100 was invested today, the total amount that would be received one year hence (assuming a rate of interest of 5%) would be: $ 105 [i.e. 100*(1+0.05)]:

Timeline Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

And the value at the beginning of year one would be $ 105. In year 2, a further interest would be earned on this $ 105 and be compounded. Thus, the value of the investment at the end of year 2 would be $110.25 [i.e. 105*(1.05)].

Timeline Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

Similarly, for the time period of n, the future value of the $100 investment would be $ 100*(1.05)n:

Timeline Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

1.  Basic Formula for Present & Future Value

Thus we can sum up the effect of compounding and relation between the interest and time as follows:

Effect of Compounding Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

For discounting the future value of cash flow to arrive at the present value, the following formula can be used:

Discounting future value of cash Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

2.  Multiple Compounding

While using the above-mentioned formulas, the values of ‘r’ and ‘N’ must be compatible with the time. For example, if an amount of $200 is compounded at 4% for the next five years, we would use the following values for compounding:

Compounding

R

N

Annual

4%

5

Semi-Annual

2%

10

Quarterly

1%

20

m times a year

4/m %

5*m

Therefore, the future value of a cash flow at the interest rate of r, for N-years, compounded m-times a year would be:

Future Value of Cash flow  Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

And the present value would be:

Present Value Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

3.  Continuous Compounding

When there is a continuous compounding of the interest rates, the future value of the amount invested today at an interest rate of ‘r’ for a time period of ‘N’ would be:

Future Value Continuous Compounding Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

 And the present value of the future stream of cash flow is:

Present Value Continuous Compounding  Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

4.  Effective Annual Rates

When there is a compounding of interest multiple times in a year, would yield an absolute return of more than what is earned if it was compounded once annually. For example, $ 100 invested at 4% for a year would yield:

Compounding

Value at the end of a year

Effective Annual Rate

Annually

$ 104 [i.e. 100(1+0.04)]

4%

Semi-Annually

$ 104.04 [i.e. 100(1+0.02)2]

4.04%

Quarterly

$ 104.0604 [i.e. 100(1+0.01)4]

4.0604%

Monthly

$ 104.0742 [i.e. 100(1+ 0.04/12)12]

4.0742%

Continuously

$ 104.0811 [i.e. 100*e0.04]

4.0811%

It can thus be seen from the above example that the effective interest rates keep on increasing as the number of times it compounded increases.

So, the effective annual rate can be calculated using the following formula:

Effective Annual Rate Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

And, when there is a continuous compounding, the effective interest rate can be calculated using the following formula:

Effective Annual Rate Continuous Compounding Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

So, if we know the effective annual rate, we can also find the stated rate as follows:

Stated Rate from Effective Annual Rate

And, if the interest is compounded continuously, the stated interest would be calculated as follows:

Stated Rate from Effective Annual Rate  Compounded continuously Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

5.  Annuity

a.  An annuity is a finite set of equal sequential cash flows.

b.  There are two types of annuities: an ordinary annuity and the annuity due.

c.  An ordinary annuity is one that is payable at the end of each equal sequential period.

For example, consider the following timeline:

Annuity Timeline Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

In the above timeline, since the payment begins at the end of the current time period i.e. T0, therefore it is an ordinary annuity. Also, all the payments are equal and sequential, for a finite period of 5 years.

So the time period, payment, their respective future value, and total future value of the annuity at the end of the year 5 are:

Year

Payment

Future Value at the end of Period-5

Amount

1

100

$ 100 (1+0.05)4

$ 121.5506

2

100

$ 100 (1+0.05)3

$ 115.7625

3

100

$ 100 (1+0.05)2

$ 110.2500

4

100

$ 100 (1+0.05)1

$ 105.0000

5

100

$ 100 (1+0.05)0

$ 100.0000

Total

   

$ 552.5631

Calculating the future value using the above procedure, i.e. calculating the future value of the individual payment and then summing it up is a very long and tedious task, especially if the number of payments is large. Alternatively, the future value of an ordinary annuity can be calculated using the following formula:

future value of an ordinary annuity Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

On similar lines, as discussed above, we can also find the present value of an ordinary annuity using the formula:

present value of an ordinary annuity Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

d.  Whereas, an annuity due is the one that is payable at the beginning of each period.

For example, consider the following timeline:

Annuity Due Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

In the above timeline, since the payment begins at the beginning of the current time period i.e. T0, therefore it is an annuity due. Also, all the payments are equal and sequential, for a finite period of 5 years.

So the time period, payment, their respective future value, and total future value of the annuity at the end of the year 5 are:

Year

Payment

Future Value at the end of Period-5

Amount

1

100

$ 100 (1+0.05)5

$ 127.6282

2

100

$ 100 (1+0.05)4

$ 121.5506

3

100

$ 100 (1+0.05)3

$ 115.7625

4

100

$ 100 (1+0.05)2

$ 110.2500

5

100

$ 100 (1+0.05)1

$ 105.0000

Total

   

$ 580.1913

Calculating the future value using the above procedure, i.e. calculating the future value of the individual payment and then summing it up is a very long and tedious task, especially if the number of payments is large. Alternatively, the future value of an annuity due can be calculated using the following formula:

Future Value of Annuity Due Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

Also, the formula for the present value of an annuity due is:

Present Value of Annuity Due Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

If we notice the above-mentioned formulas for the present value of the annuities, they are nothing but the future value discounted back to the present date at the applicable discount rate, or:

present value of the annuities Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

6.  Unequal Cash Flows

Consider the following timeline:

Unequal payments Timeline Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

The time period, payment, their respective future value, and total future value of the payment series at the end of year 5 are:

Year

Payment

Future Value at the end of Period-5

Amount

1

100

$ 100 (1+0.05)4

$ 121.5506

2

200

$ 200 (1+0.05)3

$ 231.5250

3

400

$ 400 (1+0.05)2

$ 441.0000

4

500

$ 500 (1+0.05)1

$ 525.0000

5

600

$ 600 (1+0.05)0

$ 600.0000

Total

   

$ 1919.0756

7.  Perpetuity

a.  Perpetuity is nothing but an annuity with an infinite holding period, i.e. N= ∞.

b.  Thus, perpetuity must have:

i.  leveled or equal cash flows,

ii.  sequential payments, and

iii.  infinite holding period.

c.  Now, consider the formula for calculation of the present value of an annuity, which is:

Present Value of an Annuity  Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

For perpetuity, since N  → ∞,

                                  1/ (1+ r)n  → 0

Therefore, the present value of a perpetuity is:

Present Value of Perpetuity Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

For example, there is the perpetuity of $ 100 per annum at the interest rate of 5%, its present value at the beginning would be:

perpetuity example Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

Now, consider there is the perpetuity of $ 100 at the interest rate of 5% starting 5 years from today, then its present value at the end of 5 years from now would be:

perpetuity example Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

Now we can calculate its present value, today, by discounting this value at 5% for 5 years, as follows:

perpetuity example Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

8.  Solving for Rate of Interest / Time Period / Payment

a.  If we are given the price today (i.e. PV) for an amount receivable N years from now (i.e. FV), we can calculate the rate of interest as follows:

We know that:

Effect of Compounding Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

Thus,

FV and PV Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

Or,

FV and PV Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

 

b.  Similarly, we can also find the value of N, as follows:

Given the equation:

Effect of Compounding Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

Thus,

FV and PV Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

So we can find the value of N as follows:

Value of N from PV and FV Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

For example: For how many years should an amount of $100 be invested so that it doubles, at the interest rate of 7%?

We are given:        FV = $200

                              PV = $100             

                              r = 7%

And we need to solve for N.

As per the above formula,

Example Value of N from PV and FV Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

Or, it takes 10.2448 years for the money to double at the interest rate of 7%.

c.  We can calculate the annual payments that should be made so that it has a certain present value if we are given the interest rates and the time horizon.

We know that the present value of an annuity is:

Present Value of Annuity Due Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

Solving for A in the above equation:

Amount of Annuity Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

This formula is mostly useful in calculating the EMIs and the series of annual payments.

For example:

We purchased an asset worth $ 100,000 on an installment basis to be paid in the next 5 years beginning at the end of the current year. The applicable interest rate is 5%. We have to find a number of equal installments that should be paid for the next 5 years.

Amount of Annuity Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

or,

Annuity Example Quantitative Methods CFA level 1 Study Notes

 

NOTE:

If we have to calculate the payments having frequencies different from the annual, we must adjust N for the same.